Analysis: Major War Unlikely If West Strikes Syria

The US and its allies look likely to launch a targeted strike on Syria in response to the regime’s chemical weapon attack there, and fears are high that will lead to Israel being attacked too. Even Iran has been dropping hints they may hit Israel. Don’t believe it.

While small-scale rocket attacks on Israel from “unknown” terror cells are very possible, Syria and Iran have too much to lose to risk a real war.

The key is the American goal in this operation. Based on media reports, it doesn’t appear they want to win the Syrian civil war for the rebels. They just want to punish the regime for killing hundreds in a shocking poison gas attack.

Hence, Syria shouldn’t fear it’s survival. Not yet, anyway. So it’s unlikely Syria will retaliate much against the US, much less Israel.

But if they attack and kill US troops, the American strikes will intensify, putting the Syrian regime at risk. So expect Syria to fire some obligatory missiles in response and actively defend themselves, but ultimately to take what they’ve got coming to them. It’ll hurt, but it won’t cripple the regime.

But attack Israel? That would be asking for a devastating blow. Israel, surrounded by lethal enemies, usually
defends itself with intensity. A scud strike from neighboring Syria would result in a major response. A strong enough Syrian attack, especially if it killed Israeli civilians, would lead to an Israeli onslaught. Then the Syrian regime would be in trouble.

Even when Israel reportedly hit Syrian weapons inside Syria, the Syrians didn’t retaliate. They knew better, and they still do. Don’t mess with Israel.

Similarly, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon won’t attack Israel openly either. Their leaderships can survive without the Syrian regime. They won’t survive a war with Israel.

This is good news for you, since a broad Middle East war would not only hurt a key US ally (Israel), it’ll also cause oil prices to rise even more than they will already. As it is, expect a price bump once the US hits Syria, but expect to go back down once the dust settles.

Another Middle East fight is coming, but not another war.

(By Joshua Spurlock,, August 27, 2013)

What do you think?